I just came back from two prereleases, and I'm wondering if anyone noticed a high number of rares repeating in people's pools. We had about thirty people in our morning prerelease, and a little less in our afternoon one, and among those pools we had:
- Two people pull two [[Gideon of the Trials]]
- The same person pull two [[Dread Wanderer]]s for both his pools
- One person pull two [[Harvest Season]]s
- Two people pull two [[Nissa, Steward of Elements]]
- One person pull two [[Liliana, Death's Majesty]]s
- One person pull two [[Combat Celebrant]]s
- Myself, I had the dubious pleasure of pulling two [[Glorious End]]s, as did someone sitting next to me in the afternoon.
Worth noting that this doesn't include promos. For what it's worth, I played against someone with a promo and non-promo [[Hazoret the Fervent]], as well as someone with a promo and non-promo [[Approach of the Second Sun]] (lost to that once, ain't even mad). Also sat next to someone with a promo and non-promo [[Glory-Bound Initiate]].
Nor is this an exhaustive list, or just me paying attention to the most jubilant people. Of my eight matches, I played against both double Nissas, the double Lilianas, and the double Celebrants; all mythics.
(Also worth noting that someone noticed duplicate non-foil commons in one of their packs. Not sure which one it was, though).
I realize that every set we get "DAE THINK WOTC SEEDS PRERELEASE PACKS" posts. I'm not talking about people pulling lots of mythics or money cards, I'm talking specifically about rares/mythics being duplicated within the same pool. Maybe it's a collation issue, à la Eldritch Moon (no idea what the art on each booster was, sorry)? And yes, I realize that our one store could just be an outlier. That's why I'm asking here, to see if anyone else had the same experience.
(Maybe if I've got time tomorrow I'll analyze the odds of 50-60 players having 11+ repeats in a set with 53 rares and 15 mythics, see if we beat the null hypothesis. No objections to p=0.05?)
EDIT: I did the math (I can transcribe it here if need be, but it will be ugly ugly LaTeX), and discovered the following:
- The probability of someone opening two (or more) of the same mythic in their six packs is 0.0152 (low, but not *super* low)
- The probability (under the null hypothesis) of 8+ people in a prerelease of 60 people doing so is 3.67E-6
- You can expect results like these every 272559 prereleases of 60 people, needing over sixteen million people.
So yeah, I'd say there's enough evidence to think that something's fishy.